ONCAP II Hits Home Run With Sale of Canadian Securities Institute

Canadian Securities Institute Global Education Inc. was recently sold by one of Onex’s private equity funds to Moody’s Analytics for $155 million Cdn.

ONCAP paid $25 million for a 91% stake in the company which was spun off by the securities industry back in 2006. Onex’s share of the company was 40%.

When the sale was made back in 2006, the multiple that ONCAP paid was somewhat frothy. However, closing regional offices, converting all exams to mutiple choice for quick computerized marking, coupled with 200% fee increases to take an industry exam made CSI extremely profitable on what can be considered a monopoly as an education content provider in the securities industry in Canada.

As an industry participant, one can only hope that Moody’s will keep fees reasonable as educational requirements keep increasing and double digit course fee increases seem to be the norm.

Your comments are always appreciated.

Action List Worth A Look

Our Canadian research comes from National Bank. Since November, 2009, they have produced an Action list where their analysts provide their best ideas. In conjunction with their recommendations, they also recommend when to sell these holdings based on price appreciation or earnings surprises.

From November 30th, 2009 to June 30th, 2010, 27 names have appeared on the list with 13 still on the list. In the last quarter, five names were removed while six were added.

In the last quarter, the NBF Action List returned 3.76% vs. -0.33% for the TSX. Since November 30, the Action List netted 6.13% vs. 0.81% for the TSX.

The Action List is updated daily. To get the current action list, please don’t hesitate to contact us and we would be happy to email or send you a copy.

Have a great weekend. Your comments are always appreciated.

Canadian Investment Idol Competition

We would like to congratulate Mr. Joseph Weisz of Montreal, Quebec for winning the first Rothenberg Capital Management Canadian Investment Idol Competition powered by Claymore ETF’s. Mr. Weisz had a return of 15.02% over the eight week time frame.

To view all of our weekly winners, you can click on the link HERE.

 

Have a great week.

Claymore Gold Bullion Trust – A Great Way to Buy Gold

With India adding 200 tonnes of gold to their reserves, gold has hit an all-time high. It was highly anticipated that China was going to purchase this block of gold. With China publicly expressing its wish to increase its gold reserves over the coming years, one can only imagine that gold might appreciate significantly over time.

So what is the best way to play gold? You can buy gold producers but that takes on the risk of an individual companies performance. Some will outperform bullion while others won’t. For those that want exposure to bullion, consider the Claymore Gold Bullion Trust. The symbol is cgl.un on the TSX.

The units trade at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV). Today’s closing price was $10.00 and the NAV is roughly $10.40. Most Gold Trusts trade at premiums. Claymore will convert the units into an exchange traded fund if the units trade at a 2% or more discount to its NAV for 10 consecutive trading days starting at the end of November. Once this happens the discount should disappear.

If you buy gold outright as a retail investor, expect to pay a premium over what is quoted in the press. Couple that with any storage costs associated with buying bullion and you will see that Claymore’s product has merit. Another benefit for Canadian investors is that the units are hedged into Canadian dollars.

Typically, commodities move inversely with the US dollar. As gold goes up, the US dollar goes down potentially negating any upside to Canadian investors. In the interest of full disclosure, I do own some of the units personally.

Your thoughts about gold and where its heading are greatly appreciated.

 

 

Headline Deflation Number Not Worth Reporting

Media outlets have been reporting that inflation was -0.9% for the last 12 months in Canada. Many people will listen to that one number and not look any further.

The headline number includes food and energy prices with energy prices being the main reason for the decline since a barrel of oil in July 2008 was trading as high as $147 a barrel compared to $70 today.

As a result, gasoline prices dropped 28%. The decline in energy prices was quick and steep and will quickly disappear from the deflationary number being reported.

Core inflation which excludes these items was 1.8% and right in line with the 2% target of the Bank of Canada. There was nothing in this report to indicate a change in Bank of Canada interest rate policy.

Going forward, expect energy prices to contribute to the headline inflation number. Just like my post of a couple of weeks ago disecting the jobless numbers, it is always important to read more than the headline in order to say informed.

Your comments and inquiries are always appreciated.

Jobs Numbers Better Than Headlines Suggest

The latest monthly job numbers in Canada showed a 44,500 decline while the economic consensus was a 15,000 exepected decline. The National Bank Financial Economic & Strategy Group pointed out some figures that suggest some very good takeaways.

Half the job losses were in the food and accomodation area in Quebec. The decline was also among 15 – 24 year olds in the province as harsh weather conditions contributed signficantly to the decline.

Ontario on the other hand created 13,700 jobs, the best number since September 2008. The other very interesting number is that total hours worked in Canada increased for a third consecutive month by a robust 0.3% contradicting the job loss number.

These number suggest that Canada is on track to show 3% GDP growth for the quarterand National Bank expects the employment situation to improve in the next couple of months.

The moral of this post is that it is important to read more than the headline. Your thoughts and comments are always appreciated. Have a good weekend.

Fundamental Indexing Outperforms in Last Year

Fundamental Indexing is a strategy which ranks and weights companies, not by market capitalization but instead by four fundamental financial data points (cash flow, dividends, book value and revenue).

The portfolio gets rebalanced annually and typically overweights companies that are considered value oriented vs. growth oriented.

The strategy was developed by Rob Arnott and his company Research Affiliates. Many have argued that fundamental indexing is a flawed form of indexing. This post is not going to get into the case for or against fundamental indexing but the returns have been compelling against major indexes.

As of June 30, 2009, the TSX Total Return Index was down 25.69% while the FTSE RA Fundamental Canada Index was down only 12.22% outperforming the market by more than 13%.

The US equivalent outperformed the S & P 500 Total Return Index by more than 5% and the global equivalent outperformed by just under 2%.

The 10 year numbers are also quite compelling with fundamental indexing outperforming its benchmark by 2% – 4% in each of these markets. With these results, ignoring fundamental indexing as a viable strategy can cost you performance over the long run.

To learn more, you can click on the following link here.

To find out how to add fundamental indexing to your portfolio, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Your comments are always greatly appreciated.